In the past five NFL seasons, the San Francisco 49ers built arguably the most complete roster in professional football. Not once. All five seasons. They secured the services of generational talents from Nick Bosa to Fred Warner to Richard Sherman, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, among others. And yet …
In those same five seasons, San Francisco lost a Super Bowl and dropped two conference championship games, with one nonplayoff campaign and this current run mixed into this stretch. Throughout it, the 49ers could sometimes seem cursed, whether from injury outbreaks or quarterback shuffling or close losses impacted by injuries or signal-callers.
Many examine such circumstances and offer the simplest reason: San Francisco was no more than a quarterback away most years. It’s not that simple, though, and the oversimplification starts with ignoring the 49ers’ offensive evolution and where it led, to the crux of all future ambitions for this hard-luck, well-built franchise, including winning Sunday’s conference championship clash with the Detroit Lions. That crux, the x-factor to end all x-factors, isn’t quarterback Brock Purdy, Kittle or even Bosa. It’s Samuel, upon which so many legacies and reputations rest.
Samuel departed San Francisco’s 24–21 victory over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday early on with a shoulder injury severe enough to require X-rays. He watched the rest of the win from the sidelines, watched the offense stall, even as Packers defenders dropped interceptions and Purdy & Co. made enough plays to advance. Good news was delivered Monday, with every NFL insider placing Samuel’s chance to play in six days around 50-50. Those X-rays were negative, which meant no fracture, which meant what matters most now is how quickly his shoulder heals. This comes from one source at team headquarters who described the vibe around Samuel’s availability as “cautiously optimistic—maybe even more than that, but no one wants to jinx it.”
Makes sense. If Samuel isn’t more likely to play than not, of course everyone involved hopes, prays and offers sacrifices that he will. In all likelihood, if he does play, Samuel will primarily match up with C.J. Gardner-Johnson, an elite cornerback who intercepted Baker Mayfield on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ first possession Sunday, helping Detroit win its second playoff game in the last 32 seasons. That said, the previous time these teams played, Samuel racked up nine catches for 189 yards and a touchdown in the 2021 season opener. That said, Gardner-Johnson was still playing for the New Orleans Saints back then.
that said, here’s what really matters: This season, when Samuel played a full game, San Francisco went 12–2 while averaging 31.4 points and 412.4 yards per game. The four times he either didn’t play or left due to injury in the first half, they went 1–3, while averaging 18.8 and 339. This pattern also extends beyond this season. Since drafting Samuel in 2019, the 49ers are 8–9 without him in the regular season, according to an analysis from Stat Muse, including 0–2 before this postseason and (just barely) 1–0 in these playoffs. For the 8–9 mark, many of those wins came against less-than-elite opposition.
The good news, for what it’s worth, is that Samuel has played in each of the 49ers’ 10 postseason games since arriving in San Francisco. In those games, they’re 7–3. Of course they are, which speaks to the evolution in play and why it matters the most for Samuel specifically.
