When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look , and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look .
As you get further into the season and the college football puzzle sorts itself out, the two instincts converge and the exercise becomes easier. The number of square pegs in round holes falls sharply. Some matchups hold steady week-over-week. When chaos strikes—as it did this week, much to the chagrin of Alabama, Texas A&M and others—you can handle it.
Without further ado, let's take a look at a provisional bowl picture based on the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System. With the regular season about to end, Academic Progress Rate—the statistic that determines which 5-7 teams are eligible for bowl games—will be brought online next week if necessary. Commentary follows.
Post-Week 13 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season
GAME
LOCATION
DATE
PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl
Atlanta
Dec. 14
Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Salute to Veterans Bowl
Montgomery, Ala.
Dec. 14
Georgia Southern vs. Auburn
Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
Dec. 17
Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, Fla.
Dec. 18
Vanderbilt vs. South Alabama
LA Bowl
Inglewood, Calif.
Dec. 18
UNLV vs. California
New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans
Dec. 19
James Madison vs. Sam Houston
Cure Bowl
Orlando
Dec. 20
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Gasparilla Bowl
Tampa
Dec. 20
LSU vs. East Carolina
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1
Athens, Ga.
Dec. 20
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Georgia
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2
University Park, Pa.
Dec. 21
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3
Columbus
Dec. 21
No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4
South Bend, Ind.
Dec. 21
No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Notre Dame
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Conway, S.C.
Dec. 23
Buffalo vs. Marshall
Potato Bowl
Boise, Idaho
Dec. 23
Miami-Ohio vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu
Dec. 24
Navy vs. Liberty
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Detroit
Dec. 26
Wisconsin vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Phoenix
Dec. 26
Rutgers vs. TCU
68 Ventures Bowl
Mobile, Ala.
Dec. 26
Arkansas State vs. Arkansas
Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham
Dec. 27
Oklahoma vs. South Florida
Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth
Dec. 27
Connecticut vs. Kansas
Liberty Bowl
Memphis
Dec. 27
Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Holiday Bowl
San Diego
Dec. 27
Duke vs. Washington State
Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas
Dec. 27
South Carolina vs. Colorado
Fenway Bowl
Boston
Dec. 28
Tulane vs. Virginia Tech
Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, N.Y.
Dec. 28
Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque
Dec. 28
Appalachian State vs. Colorado State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Orlando
Dec. 28
BYU vs. Pittsburgh
Arizona Bowl
Tucson
Dec. 28
Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Military Bowl
Annapolis, Md.
Dec. 28
Memphis vs. North Carolina
Alamo Bowl
San Antonio
Dec. 28
Washington vs. Iowa State
Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La.
Dec. 28
Army vs. West Virginia
Music City Bowl
Nashville
Dec. 30
Nebraska vs. Mississippi
ReliaQuest Bowl
Tampa
Dec. 31
Iowa vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31
Boston College vs. USC
Citrus Bowl
Orlando
Dec. 31
Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl
Houston
Dec. 31
Kansas State vs. Missouri
Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz.
Dec. 31
No. 12 Arizona State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Peach Bowl
Atlanta
Jan. 1
No. 11 Indiana or No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif.
Jan. 1
No. 9 Tennessee or No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans
Jan. 1
No. 10 SMU or No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Texas
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville
Jan. 2
Syracuse vs. Florida
First Responder Bowl
Dallas
Jan. 3
UTSA vs. Texas Tech
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Charlotte
Jan. 3
Minnesota vs. Louisville
Bahamas Bowl
Nassau
Jan. 4
Toledo vs. Western Kentucky
Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, Fla.
Jan. 9
Peach Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas
Jan. 10
Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship
Atlanta
Jan. 20
Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner
Notable Potential Bowl Matchups
Do not adjust your television sets: that is Auburn in the Salute to Veterans Bowl against Georgia Southern, which would mark the Tigers' first game in Montgomery's historic Cramton Bowl since 1953… James Madison and Sam Houston (New Orleans Bowl) have a pair of FCS playoff matchups under their belts, one in 2016 and one in 2020.
Tennessee and Georgia (CFP first round) are back together again; the Bulldogs won their Nov. 16 meeting 31–17… Indiana and Penn State (CFP first round) are also conference-mates; the Nittany Lions won last year's meeting between the two teams 33–24… Arizona State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have a high-profile past meeting under their belts— the 1996 season's Rose Bowl, won 20–17 by the Buckeyes… SMU and Notre Dame (CFP first round) met 40 years ago in the 1984 Aloha Bowl, a 27–20 Mustangs victory.
Arkansas State and Arkansas (68 Ventures Bowl) have never met in football; they are scheduled to do so in 2025… Connecticut and Kansas (Armed Forces Bowl) are currently ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in men's basketball… Baylor and Texas A&M (Liberty Bowl), longtime Southwest Conference rivals, have not met since 2011… Tulane and Virginia Tech (Fenway Bowl) played in last year's Military Bowl; bowl executives tend to intervene to prevent rematches… Georgia Tech and Michigan (Pinstripe Bowl) last played in 1934, a game infamous for the Wolverines benching their only Black player Willis Ward at the Yellow Jackets' request… BYU opened its 1984 national championship season against Pittsburgh (Pop-Tarts Bowl), topping the No. 3 Panthers 20–14… Bowling Green and Fresno State (Arizona Bowl) played three times in the California Bowl, a defunct game matching up the MAC and Big West champions… USC beat Boston College (Sun Bowl) 24–13 in the 2009 Emerald Bowl.
A few new potential quarterfinal matchups looming: the Sun Devils and Boise State (Fiesta Bowl; the Broncos won their last meeting in the 2011 Las Vegas Bowl 56–24), ex-conference rivals SMU and Texas (Sugar Bowl), and Kirby Smart's Georgia vs. protege Dan Lanning's Oregon in the Rose Bowl… Syracuse and Florida (Gator Bowl) played in the Orange Bowl after the 1998 season; the Gators won 31–10… Among potential semifinal matchups, keep an eye on Georgia and the Broncos (Cotton Bowl), who split two games in which both were ranked in 2005 and 2011.
